I've been watching events in the USA and the UK with some interest the last couple of weeks, as the consequences of some recent decisions made by those countries have started to manifest themselves.
In the USA, the equities markets have copped a pounding as the Chinese finally grew tired of the Twitter-tariffs and in a move that was clearly calculated to annoy the petulant infant in the White House, let their currency fall below a critical level against the US dollar. This then set off a flight to bonds and widespread predictions of a recession.
Coupled with this are rising tensions in the Middle East. The decision by the US to pull out of the Iran nuclear treaty and impose crippling economic sanctions has had the predictable effect of goading the Iranians into showing their teeth by impounding vessels and blockading a key sea passage. The likelihood of fresh military action is growing daily, somewhat ironic when you consider Trump's aversion to having anything at all to do with that part of the world.
Finally, the latest round of mass shootings and the increasing trend of these attacks being carried out by white supremacists has drawn fresh attention not just on the lack of action on gun control but what effect Trumps's incessant racist tweeting has had on emboldening the perpetrators.
Meanwhile over the Atlantic, the Brexit deadline is fast approaching and with it, the real prospect that the UK will crash out of the EU without an agreement and the 2 year transition period that would have come with it. The mind boggles at what's going to happen at the end of October but I for one won't be going near the place for at least 6 months afterwards. The prospect of waiting another 24 hours at Heathrow to get into the country after enduring a flight of the same duration has absolutely no appeal. There's another irony at play when you consider the Brexiteers' campaign slogan in the context of what's likely to happen shortly post-Brexit, namely Scotland and potentially Northern Ireland leaving the UK. "Taking Back Control"? Hardly. More like, "Spiralling out of Control".
Because that's the problem with decisions based on a populist agenda compared with ones based on careful consideration of the facts and the likely consequences. Eventually this annoying thing called reality gets in the way and bad outcomes that would have been obvious with even a basic level of forward thinking start to happen.
Of course, Trump's decision making has never been guided by any level of strategic planning or careful thought. With very few exceptions, everything he has done in office has been driven either by ignorance or his pet grievances, like the way China conducts business, his admiration for despots like Putin and Kim Jong-Un, his hatred of Iran and more generally, anybody who isn't white. The really scary thing for the USA is that while Trump has absolutely no plan for how to manage the escalating trade dispute with China, you can bet your bottom dollar the Chinese do, and with a centrally controlled economy and a totalitarian government, they have the ability to take measures which could seriously harm the US economy - measures that aren't available to a democratic state like America.
In the UK, running the country you now have the man who Trump, in his typically conceited manner, labelled "Britain-Trump". However, the reality is that Boris Johnson is a very different character to Trump. For a start, it's kind of difficult not to like him even though you really don't want to. While I'm positive it's an act, he has got the daffy, eccentric Britisher shtick down to a T, and the phrase "it takes a lot of intelligence to come across that stupid" could have been invented for him. Also unlike Trump, he appears to have a strong sense of civic duty and I think he genuinely cares for and wants to do the right thing by his constituents, rather than just himself.
There is though one important flaw that the two men share - they are both egomaniacs. I've got no doubt whatsoever that Johnson believes he will march into the EU headquarters in Brussels sometime in the next couple of weeks and get them to tear up Theresa May's deal and give him everything he wants.
There's just one problem with that approach: the EU aren't going to. Businesses know that, the financial markets know that (hence why the Pound has been sinking against the Euro and US dollar), and deep down, even his supporters in the Tory party know that, which is why they have been quietly making preparations for what's coming to them on 31 October. I doubt very much that David Cameron foresaw years of potential economic pain and a splintering of the United Kingdom when he unbottled the Brexit genie, but this is now what's going to happen, solely because of a lot of populist grandstanding in the Parliament and poor decision making.
What I find so confounding about populist world leaders is that in just about any other walk of life, they would be recognised for what they are and shown the door pretty quickly. Could you imagine for instance if the board of Apple or Amazon appointed someone with Trump's history of financial malfeasance as CEO? The company's value would dive and the shareholders would be baying for blood.
Similarly, imagine if either Trump or Johnson got appointed as principal of a fancy private girls school. It's hard to see the parents and friends association tolerating a sexual predator who boasts of pussy grabbing and who has a weird physical obsession with his own daughter being put in charge of their kids' education. Action would be taken swiftly to deal with any inappropriate behaviour, and the pressure would not relent until they'd been given the boot.
Yet when it comes to the most important job in the country, people seem to have a limitless tolerance for incompetence and bad behaviour, and any public criticism of it tends to last no more than a day in the media cycle. Richard Nixon must be looking up from Hell and cursing his luck that he wasn't born 45 years later so he could be President in the modern age where the lengthy and sustained investigation which exposed the Watergate scandal would simply never have happened.
Encouragingly, though, there are signs that the natives are getting restless in both countries and that the political leaders might finally about to be held to account for their actions. If you're the sort of person who votes for a pig-ignorant bigot like Trump, it's all well and good to cheer them along when they go poke China with a stick or let you hang onto your private arsenal. However it's only natural that you'll start to think twice about re-electing them when there's a chance that as a direct result of the decisions they make, your house drops 40% in value or you find yourself in a shopping mall confronted by a deranged lunatic wielding an assault rifle.
It's kind of worrying what is going on at the moment, but maybe some of these disasters need to play out as a condition to returning to a more sensible and considered public debate, and to stop leaders doing what's popular with their support base and instead act in the best interests of their countries. And who knows, if governments have enough courage to be honest with their citizens about the challenges they are facing, they might be prepared to put up with some things they disagree with in the short term and let the government focus on securing long-term prosperity.
Which, I'm afraid, won't be able to be done by starting a war in the Middle East, playing tariff "chicken" with China and inadvertently causing a break up of the UK.
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