2016 - The Year of the Ignoramus

Like most of you, I have just returned from a much needed Christmas break. The period away from the office provided an opportunity to reflect on the year just past and to try and figure out how the hell all the things that went on the world happened. Because while a lot of longstanding sporting droughts got broken in 2016, the year was momentous for a whole lot of other reasons which I think it will be remembered for long after people have stopped talking about the Cubs, Bulldogs and Leicester City. Most concerningly in public life in the western world, it was a year where stupidity and ignorance came to the forefront, the consequences of which I fear are going to play out fairly quickly in 2017.

Of course, the public mood that gave rise to things like Brexit, the election of Donald Trump and the rebirth of One Nation has been prevailing for some time. The western world has been going through a sustained period of economic austerity relative to the period before 2008, and people are understandably frustrated that what wealth has been generated has accrued to a relatively thin stratum of society. Also the rise of Asia and particularly China at the expense of historic powerhouses like the USA has been confusing and difficult to swallow for many. I can't comment about Europe and the USA, but in Australia the fact that a succession of governments since 2007 just can't seem to get anything important done and have focused inordinate attention on relative minor issues such as gay marriage and stopping refugee boats drives me insane. However, despite these frustrations, I would seriously question whether things really are that bad relative to the war years or the great depression, and therefore whether western democracies punishing governments by making a series of ill-considered voting choices is really a good idea.

2016's elections were unusual in that people seemed determined to abandon the establishment and plump for maverick candidates promising outcomes that were at odds with orthodox thinking. It was almost as if the more ignorant, outlandish and inexperienced the candidate was, the better. Also what I found particularly puzzling across the various campaigns was that facts were almost an optional extra, to the extent that an alarming description of today's world as "the post-fact world" has entered the vernacular. Certainly an inordinate amount of scorn has been heaped on economists, scientists and other experts by Trump and his ilk when they have produced reports contradicting what they were saying.

The problem however with ignoring facts and the advice of experts and putting unqualified and ignorant people in charge of things is that it isn't viable longer term and is prone to make things much worse than people think they already are. It's interesting that people now seem prepared to elect inexperienced and volatile people like Trump to run the country, whereas if the same approach were taken in say business or any other areas of society, the behaviour would be shut down pretty swiftly. Could you imagine BHP appointing say Shane Warne as its CEO instead of someone with years of experience in business? The shares would plummet. Similarly, would you happily board a Qantas jet whose maintenance over the past year had been overseen by Pauline Hanson instead of a qualified aeronautical engineer? Of course not, you would run a mile. Yet when we get people with no experience in public administration and who quite often have had chequered careers in their chosen field, somehow people have convinced themselves that they are going to make a better fist of things than the mainstream candidates. Interestingly, despite the fact that she has no scientific training whatsoever, Pauline recently had the arrogance to declare after a 30 minute snorkel that the Great Barrier Reef is going just fine and that what all the scientists are saying coral bleaching is a load of rubbish. Lord give me strength.

If history and common sense are any guide, now that ignoramuses in Australia, Europe and the USA are effectively controlling the agenda, the next 2 years are not going to go well. Here are what I see as some of the future consequences of last year's electoral decisions:

• Trump will ignore advice from the State Department (after all, with his zero experience, he knows better than all those expert diplomats, right?) and continue to deal with sensitive and complicated foreign policy issues via Twitter. Eventually a couple of ill-advised tweets will lead to both a major breakdown in relations with China and re-ignite tensions in the Middle East so that the USA gets drawn into more lengthy conflicts into the region, sending the federal deficit spiralling. Despite this, the Republican Congress happily waves through more tax cuts, meaning no money is available for Trump's much vaunted stimulus programme which was meant to create jobs for all the white middle aged battlers who voted for him. The number of mass shootings in the USA escalates dramatically as frustrated white middle aged-battlers take out their frustration on mosques, foreign embassies or any public building within range of an AK-47.
• A Trump, One Nation-esque party will secure a substantial share of the vote at the upcoming German election. Despite her well-meaning but ultimately unpopular attempts to help the Syrian refugees and keep the EU together, Angela Merkel will lose office and under pressure from the far-right group, the new government in Germany will initiate a withdrawal from the EU causing it to collapse completely. The whole of Europe will then enter a 20 year recession as former EU member states scramble to sort out trade arrangements with the major world economies, under which they wind up getting screwed due to their lack of bargaining power.
• Malcolm Turnbull will remain hostage to the likes of George Christensen, Pauline Hanson and Tony Abbott, who emboldened by their Sydney shock-jock mates, will continue to destabilise the government, dispute basic science and be openly offensive to anyone who isn't of the Christian faith or has dark skin (hey, but these days that's to be applauded, right, as it's not being politically correct?). Turnbull eventually resigns in frustration and decided to return to his investment bank to make $50 million per year. In desperation the Liberal party turns back to Abbott but then they realise too late that he is unpopular for a reason and Labor wins the next election by a landslide. Then they too decide to knife each other in the back for the next 3 years instead of governing.
• Amongst all this, business confidence crumbles, central banks in the west are compelled to keep rates down to try to stimulate economic activity, and people's superannuation takes a beating as stock markets go down or at best track sideways. 

If this happens this will of course all be unfortunate seeing it could all have been avoided if governments in the west had just performed a little bit better since the GFC and people thought just a little bit less flippantly about who they want to run their country. However, history suggests that people only learn lessons the hard way, and so maybe we need to let the people with the "L" plates drive the car for a bit. After they crash and burn we might just realise that ignorance in political leadership is not a virtue, it is a major drawback, and out of the wreckage we might get some great leaders emerge, just as they did in the aftermath of World War 2.

Whatever happens, 2017 promises to be another interesting year. I just hope a rogue Trump tweet or 4 means we don't get to see the end of it.