So Close and Yet So Far

Gutted. Angry. Frustrated. Dumbfounded.

Just 4 of the myriad of emotions I felt when the final siren sounded just after 5pm on Saturday. Mind you, the fact that I was sitting in the Collingwood official match function for the entire afternoon didn't particularly help matters. Although after the match, I have to say that for a bunch of feral, tattooed and toothless bogans they were remarkably gracious and well-behaved. Perhaps they appreciated that but for a rogue bounce of the ball in the last 2 minutes of the drawn match, the premiership would have gone our way and there would have been no second chance the following week.

Still, as Ben Cousins' guts say, such is life. We swallow the bitter pill of defeat and move on. I have to say, though, the proselytising from the football press in the last few days has been pathetic. Their dribble demonstrates that either they have the combined intelligence and memory of the average goldfish, or, more likely, don't have the fortitude or diligence to look beyond the bleeding obvious and write something with some genuine insight. "Collingwood dynasty to reign for the next 10 years", "St Kilda premiership window closed, need to drop down the ladder to re-build", they loftily intone. Well, morons, here are some facts that even your tiny brains ought to appreciate:

• It's true that the Saints face a massive challenge to come up for next year. However, let's not forget that a lot of premiers in recent years challenged for a long time and even lost the odd grand final before finally breaking through. The Swans stormed into the grand final in 1996 only to lose convincingly to North, but then hung around the top 8 for the next 8 years before finally winning in 2005. Even now, some 14 years later, they are still regular finalists. A similar thing could be said of the Brisbane side of 1995 which were perennial contenders until 2004 when they tried for one premiership too many and as a result, didn't turn their list over enough, the consequences of which they are still suffering today.
• Apart from this year's grand finalists, which sides are going to seriously challenge next year? Forget Brisbane, the Gold Coast and West Coast. Richmond and Melbourne should improve, but enough to have a tilt at a flag? Unlikely. Hawthorn have the talent but can't seem to recapture the form of 2 years ago. Essendon's list is rubbish and they have an untried coach who will also turn out to be rubbish (see below). Geelong have lost their coach and best player. North and Sydney are honest but also lack the cattle required. That doesn't leave many teams knocking seriously on the door.
• Much has been made of St Kilda's ageing list and the consequent need to "bottom out". This is of course utter rubbish. You don't need to "bottom out" in order to achieve success; this repeated assertion in the media is particularly annoying as it's patently untrue. Just look at clubs like the Swans, Geelong and Adelaide who have managed to reach the finals regularly over a long period of time without needing to finish 14th-16th and collect priority handouts from the AFL. They have managed to continually contend through astute drafting and in Sydney's case, a spectacular hit rate of "recycling" players. Which leads me to my next point ...
• First round draft picks are highly over-rated. Let's look at some number 1 picks by way of example. While no-one can debate the genuine star rating of a Hodge, Riewoldt or Cooney, other high draft picks, while usually serviceable players, don't necessarily turn into superstars. Would you consider Brett Deledio, Des Headland or Travis Johnstone to be better players than say Dane Swan (58), Sam Fisher (55) and Mark LeCras (37)? Of course not. The clubs that are continually successful are the ones that see value in the draft and exploit it rather than trying to punt on one or two first round picks.
• Now, turning to Collingwood. Assuming some of their players avoid jail after the post-premiership escapades, they've got challenges of their own next year - all of their own making. How do you deal with a situation where a proven premiership coach with the fire still in his belly has to stand down at the end of next season and hand over to his unproven deputy - and then hang round watching for the next 3 years while he potentially mucks it all up? I know what Eddie McGuire was trying to do, but to Malthouse the situation must now be particularly galling in light of last week's win. No one can predict how this will play out but if Malthouse decides he wants to coach on somewhere, it's unlikely either he or McGuire will back down from a bunfight - something that's hardly conducive to a back to back premiership tilt.

Of course, the beauty of football is that next year will of course prove completely unpredictable, and some team that everyone thought was rubbish will probably come from nowhere, street the field and claim the flag. However you just wish sometimes that some of the volumes that gets written about the sport had some decent thought given to it instead of just recycling predictable themes like lauding the successful grand finalist and bashing the loser.

2 other things worthy of comment before I sign off on footy for the year and take aim at some other suitable targets. Firstly, Gary Ablett's "defection" to the Gold Coast. Surely no-one could be surprised by this. Apart from the money, could you imagine what it would be like living down in Geelong with the name "Gary Ablett"? It would be horrendously suffocating, a bit like what it must have been like living in Adelaide with the surname "Bradman". The poor kid probably couldn't fart without it making the Advertiser. Full credit to him for using the opportunity to extend himself and then having the gumption to show up to the Best and Fairest (which to my mind he should have won easily).

Second, Essendon appointing James Hird as coach. Haven't those idiots on their board learned anything? Champion players often don't make good coaches, and they NEVER make good coaches with no prior coaching experience. Look at Tim Watson - tremendous player, godawful coach. Michael Voss - serviceable first year, but then made some colossal trading blunders and now the Lions are short-priced favourites for the wooden spoon next year. KB at Richmond, Royce Hart at Footscray - the list goes on. It's hard to know exactly the reasons why, but people like Leigh Matthews and Paul Roos are rare beasts indeed.

Although he was a tremendously skilled and courageous a player, not to mention an eloquent and well-presented media commentator, history suggests Hird will fail as a coach. While he has many good points, Hird has at times showed a concerningly petulant and cranky side that will not serve him well when the team is 1-9 and 2 key midfielders are out for the rest of the season. Anyone remember his extraordinary spray of the umpires on the Footy Show? Anyone remember his completely graceless radio interview on 3MMM after the 2001 Grand Final? What side is going to come out when the chips are down and the supporters are demanding quick answers? One thing is certain, he won't be able to call on Mark Thompson for help as Geelong will take Essendon to the cleaners in court - and rightly so if Essendon tries it on.

All I can say to fellow Sainters, is lick your wounds, watch the Aussies lick the Poms in the Ashes, then regroup stronger than ever in 2011. As always, it promises to be a fascinating season.