Populate and Perish

Flash forward, Melbourne 2030, population 6.2 million.

It's 5pm on a Wednesday afternoon and I've just come out of a meeting in the city. As a 60-something looking to slow down, I'd much rather be someplace else. However about 10 years ago, in order to pay for a raft of desperately-needed infrastructure to service the exploding population, the government passed a law preventing anyone under 75 from drawing down their superannuation. So I'm stuck working for at least a few more years, but it's not all bad. Thanks to the influx of people, real estate markets are booming and there's plenty of consulting work for a grizzled industry veteran like me.

What to do now? There's no point trying to catch a train home, they'll be jam packed until at least 9. A cab? Maybe, except the roads will be gridlocked until 8 and I couldn't be bothered trying to direct a driver who neither understands English nor can work his GPS. There's nothing for it, then - it's off to the pub for a couple of hours.

I call my wife on my new AppleIvidPhone and tell her I'm going to be late. In the background I can hear the noise from the construction site next door where our neighbour's old house is being demolished to make way for 5 new townhouses. I can tell by her expression that it's driving her mad, but it doesn't matter as in a couple of days we are off to Japan for a holiday and will be getting away from all the disruption. The dollar is buying 500 Yen at the moment which is a bargain in anyone's language.

I get hold of a couple of industry mates and we arrange to meet at our usual watering hole on Lonsdale Street close to Spencer Street station. Years ago, the now-defunct newspaper the Age used to have its headquarters here, but the site was redeveloped about 15 years ago into a thriving restaurant, office and residential precinct. We order our drinks and as usual, start talking about the good old days when Melbourne was half its size and beers only cost $4 a pot.

But tonight, I just can't seem to get into the banter. A lot is on my mind. First and foremost is the question, do I really need to keep working and putting up with living in town? The place had really gone to the dogs in the last 10 years. Surely we've got enough capital behind us, even disregarding the superannuation we're never going to get to enjoy. The block next door to us just sold for redevelopment for $10 million, meaning our place is probably worth at least $12 million. Then there's the investment units we bought about 20 years ago. Together they're worth at least $10 million. But then, what happens to our kids? They're still living at home because inner city housing has now become ridiculously expensive. Sure, they can get something pretty cheap on the urban fringe at Yarra Glen or Pakenham, but why would they want to live out there when they both work in town?

There has to be an answer though. Maybe we can maintain a townhouse somewhere in the City and then pick up something liveable in the Dandenongs where we can spend our dotage. After all, people's obsession with living on the coast has meant the mountain areas are relatively more affordable. Time to start doing a bit more research and speaking to some agents. Draining my beer, I excuse myself and head for home on another depressingly over-loaded train. Smiling wryly at the young Asian student who is wedged into my left armpit, I wonder at the madness of politicians who let this all happen. Sure, the future is bright for the country, but did it really have to be so crowded?

Trying to predict the future is of course a mug's game, but on the current growth trajectory of the Australian population, it wouldn't surprise me at all if the scenario above eventuates pretty much as I have described it. On current forecasts, the population is likely to hit 36 million by 2050 and eventually peak at somewhere around 50 million. More locally, it is estimated that approximately 90,000 people are moving to Melbourne each year, meaning that by 2030 the population could well be in excess of 6,000,000, making Melbourne the approximate size of current day Hong Kong or Rio de Janeiro. When you consider that the population of Australian has only just reached 22 million from 8 million just after World War 2, adding another 14 million people in just 30 years is a pretty scary prospect and is going to have profound consequences on the Australian way of life.

Despite the looming demographic challenges of such a steep increase in population, politicians on both sides of the fence seem oddly blase about it. There seems to be a view that a large immigration intake is overwhelmingly positive, as it will bring new skills and cultural benefits to Australia as well as allow us to fulfil our economic potential and become a big player on the world stage. At the same time, giving away $5000 to encourage people to have children they might not otherwise have had is seen as a clever initiative to supplement migration.

To give you an idea how favourably disposed governments are to immigration, net overseas migration into Australia in the 2006/7 year totalled a whopping 177,600 people, or to put in in perspective, the equivalent of the entire population of Geelong moving to Australia in one year. I expect this figure reduced a bit during the GFC but more recent figures were not available on the government's website. However you would expect based on prior year's figures that the net intake annual would still be well in excess of 100,000.

When I read figures like this and then see Rudd and Abbott on the television talking tough on border protection, I just laugh. What they conveniently fail to mention is that the average number of boat people that have landed and been detained in Australia in the last 2 years is around 2500, and even that figure represents a big spike from the longer term average of 600. It is highly disingenuous for politicians to make a big song and dance about guarding our back door from immigrants when they have the red carpet rolled out at the front. They also conveniently gloss over the fact that most immigration offences come not from boat people but from people "overstaying their visa" (read: doing a runner and effectively becoming illegal immigrants like boat people) or abusing the terms of their visa. Instead of belting up a few desperate boat people, what the government should be doing is working out how the hell they are going to settle all the new arrivals here in a way that doesn't cause rioting on the streets.

I should point out I am not against migration per se. It is crucial for keeping the culture and the economy young and vibrant. One need only look at the example of Japan over the last 20 years to show what can happen to a country when immigration is not encouraged. Nor do I think we should discriminate as a nation and prefer migrants from one part of the world over another. The ugliness of the White Australia policy and more recently, Pauline Hanson, were not among our proudest moments as a nation.

What I would seriously question however is the VOLUME of immigration, particularly when you consider the limitations Australia suffers from. A significant part of the country is desert and as a result, we are one of the most urbanised countries on Earth. Nearly 2/3rds of the population live in the 5 main capital cities, and disregarding Canberra, the biggest inland city is Toowoomba in Queensland at 128,000. Where does the government think all these migrants are going to move to when they come here? Quorn? Quilpie? Of course not, they're not stupid. They are going to move where the jobs are and they can have a good quality of life, namely the capital cities and coastal areas. This of course puts massive strain on infrastructure such as housing, water and my great bugbear, roads. Just ask anyone who has tried to drive up to the Sunshine Coast from Brisbane on Boxing Day how the roads are coping.

Secondly, as well as being one of the driest countries on Earth, we are also one of the most isolated. It's one thing for someone to migrate from say Poland over to the UK, as the two countries are relatively proximate and it is fairly simple to both integrate in the new country and stay in touch with friends and relatives in the old. Moving from Poland to Australia however is a whole different thing and it is therefore not entirely surprising that migrants from places like Sudan or Albania feel incredibly isolated when they move here. The result of this is that ghettoes form as migrants from the same country band together, often resulting in ugly racial confrontations like that in Cronulla a few years ago. The government ought to be investing more time and resources in making the people who are already here feel welcome and settled instead of rushing like mad to bring in the next batch.

High immigration intakes aren't all bad though. It's true that we do get a lot more cultural divergence in our society and anyone who owns inner-city or coastal real estate is going to become incredibly rich if the size of our population does swell by 60% over the next 20 years. But ultimately we have to weigh these sorts of benefits up with the costs. Do we really want Sydney to become like some upstart Manhattan? Do we really want our pristine beaches like Peregian and Vivonne Bay crammed with ghastly high rise apartments? I for one would be happy to sacrifice seeing my wealth double every 8 years so that my children can afford to buy a house, I can ride on a train without dying of asphyxiation and can water the garden without feeling like a criminal. I suspect also many others would be prepared to make a similar sacrifice.

Following the fall of Singapore in 1941, the Australian government reacted with justifiable alarm at the threat posed to our sovereignty following the sudden breakdown of British Imperial power in the Asia-Pacific. The Immigration Minister Arthur Calwell coined the expression "Populate or Perish" and embarked after the war on a program of large-scale immigration to help ensure that Australia would be able to withstand invasion.

How ironic it is that 70 years on, instead of stopping us from perishing, large-scale immigration is causing us to perish in so many ways. Water shortages, inadequate social infrastructure and rampant development of our coastal areas all act like painful paper cuts to our way of life. Our government, however, with its obsession with the economy and continuing growth, doesn't see the bigger picture. By maintaining high immigration levels and trying to get Australia into the global big league, they ignore the punishing effect their policies have on the daily lives of their citizens.

And that is a far bigger tragedy than any GFC will ever be.