Well, if everything else I have written in this forum turns out to be a load of rubbish, at least I was right about something - the Saints HAVE indeed proven to be contenders this year. And yet, despite a season of 22 wins and 2 losses by less than a kick, we go in as underdogs against Geelong on Saturday.
Hard to believe on one level, but I suppose when you weigh up Geelong's demolition of Collingwood versus St Kilda's hard fought scrap against the Doggies, it's easy to draw the conclusion that the Geelong of 2007 has got its mojo back and will easily beat a nervous Saints outfit unused to the last day in September.
Don't be fooled by the weekend's results, however. I was at Friday night's match, which was nerve-racking right to the last minute when our champion captain finally put the game beyond the Doggies reach. Geelong, by comparison, had a very easy time of it as the Pies capitulated more or less entirely after half time, kicking one goal to Geelong's 10.
So-called experts will debate all day about the relative merits of having an easy ride of it through the preliminary final as opposed to a tough hitout, but if Geelong are expecting the Saints to tire later in the game and let in a succession of easy goals, then they have another thing coming. The Saints of 2009 is made of far sterner stuff than the failed preliminary finalists of 2004-5 and 2008, not to mention the grand final side of 1997.
Friday night's game was another classic example of this. The Doggies played absolutely out of their skins, killing St Kilda on possessions, clearances and just about every other vital statistic, yet still couldn't find a way to win. St Kilda, on the other hand, had a clanger-laden first quarter that would make the Werribee Seconds wince with embarrassment, yet somehow clawed themselves back from a 15 point quarter time deficit to snatch victory.
By the look of it, the conditions on Saturday are not going to be tailor-made for our tall forwards but if all else goes to plan, that shouldn't matter. The strengths we have shown all year such as contested possession, fierce tackling and stingy defence, if executed well, should be good enough on the day. Even if things aren't initially going our way like on last Friday night, you know that this St Kilda side is not one that is going to throw in the towel but will keep working away until the momentum swings and the team collectively wills its way to the front. If it is wet and windy, then the game promises to be another low scoring scrap, but one suspects that would suit Ross Lyon fine.
It has been interesting in the last couple of weeks seeing the colour footage of the 1966 Grand Final that was found somewhere in the vaults of the BBC. It gave a real modern feel to a match that has been replayed ad nauseam on Grand Final marathons in soulless black and white. However, the colour footage did starkly highlight one thing - Darrel "Doc" Baldock holding up the premiership cup wearing not his famous number 4, but a Collingwood jumper!
Of course in those days it was the tradition to swap jumpers with the opposition side after the match, but given the tradition is (thankfully) long dead and buried, one hopes that Nick Riewoldt can consign that picture and the whole brouhaha about 1966 to the dusty history vault where it belongs. God knows the 1966 players must be sick of being wheeled out at every club function and probably want to retire to their loungerooms and the comfort of their slippers and walking frames. It's time for this more than capable bunch of players to create their own history.
I don't think my heart, blood pressure or nerves could handle another 1-point Grand Final, but given the conditions, I suspect it is going to be another close one like round 14, with the game going right down to the wire. I am tipping Rooey marking on the 50 with 5 seconds to go, lining up for goal and the ball shanking out of bounds on the full and sconning an unsuspecting security guard. But it won't matter coz we'll already be in front.
Saints by 5.
That's what I'm talking about.
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