... fellow Saints fans, we are definitely flag contenders this year.
I know what you're all thinking, and normally I would think exactly the same. We've had flying starts to a season before, but by the time the business end of the season rolls around it all turns to excrement and we lose in the preliminary final to some objectionable team like Port Adelaide. However, it's not the fact that we are 3-0 after 3 rounds with a thumping percentage that's got my juices flowing; it's been more the manner of those wins and the type of football they are playing. Because it's the style of football that wins finals.
Even the most critical and paranoid St Kilda fan couldn't fail to notice a certain steely resolve in the team that hasn't been there in seasons past. Even in 2004 when we used to blow the mediocre teams off the park you couldn't help but get this gnawing feeling in the pit of your stomach that when we came up against a genuine contender like Brisbane or Port on their own patch that their constant and sustained pressure might make the team's game plan fall apart. So it proved at the Gabba in two late season matches where the physical intimidation of a Lions team led by Voss, Brown and the Scott brothers led to two debilitating losses.
Now think back last week to Round 2 in Adelaide. The Crows were flying high after knocking off Collingwood at the MCG and were expected to win reasonably comfortably. However the Saints got the jump on them, withstood a 3rd quarter challenge that they would have wilted under in years past, and then kicked away again in the last to win by over 5 goals. The fact that they got away with the win wasn't completely surprising, however what WAS odd was the feeling I got watching that the result was never really in doubt. Until I thought about it and understood why.
It's largely because the pressure applied by the Saints in their 3 matches this year has been relentless and nigh on impossible to counter for the whole match. Teams might be able to string a few good passages together against this type of harassment but it makes it hard for them to kick a winning score. The fact that no team has managed to kick more than 70 points against us so far is testament to this, a situation that's unlikely to change next week against the Fremantle Shockers. In fact, there is a fair prospect that we might actually keep them from scoring.
Don't be fooled by the fact that until today, we hadn't annihilated any teams. Dominant teams in years past like West Coast in 1994, Brisbane in 2001 and Carlton in 1995 didn't always bury sides during the regular season. However the sustained pressure they used to bring to bear on their opponents generally meant they won more matches than they lost and ensured a high ladder placing at the end of the season. It was in the finals that they started to thrash sides, as their game plans were ideally suited to the heat of finals football.
So what's gone right this year, and how can we keep it going to ensure we are right in contention come September? Well, assuming for once a decent run with injuries, the list finally looks up to the task. Unlike years past, there are plenty of hard nuts and no obvious weaknesses. As I mentioned earlier, no team has managed yet to kick more than 10 goals against us and this is despite the backline missing two of its stalwarts in Matt Maguire and Max Hudghton. Sam Fisher has been a revelation and Sam Gilbert an emerging star, however you wouldn't seriously put these two in the same category as say Matthew Scarlett and Tom Harley. It just goes to show how decent efforts up the ground can make the defenders' jobs much easier.
The midfield has struggled a bit in recent years against the quicker sides like the Bulldogs, but we now seem to have found the right mix of ball-winning grunt and fleet-footed disposal. Luke Ball looks properly fit for the first time in years and seems to have managed to find a way of extracting the ball from the bottom of packs without getting his head rearranged in the process. Leigh Montagna, Brendon Goddard and Farren Ray have added much needed zip while Nick Dal Santo would have to be the clubhouse leader for the Brownlow after 3 rounds after dishing out about 150 disposals. His demotion last year for not putting in enough now seems a distant memory.
The ruck division has finally got some real depth to it as well. Michael Gardiner seems to have shaken off the nigging injuries that ruined his first two years at St Kilda and is ready to recapture some of his career-best form. If he and Steven King can manage say 35 games between them and not force Justin Koschitzke or Jason Blake to have to step in too much, then this area should be a real strength this year. To make things even better, Ben McEvoy is waiting in the wings and the wraps on this kid are huge.
One player who was sorely missed last year was Stevie Baker. If Robert Harvey represented St Kilda's heart and Riewoldt and Fisher its spine, then Baker is definitely the club's underbelly. Week after week he goes to the opposition's best midfielder and makes sure they have a miserable time. If he could just learn to kick as well as he administers nipple-cripples and Chinese burns, then he would be an out and out star. He has been ably supported in this area by Clint Jones, who has the looks of a surfer but the mindset of a terrier. The fix-up job he did today on Daniel Kerr was nothing short of outstanding.
Unusually for a forward line with a spearhead like Nick Riewoldt and a crumber like Stephen Milne, the forward line could be our Achilles heel this year. Fraser Gehrig at his peak was a menacing prospect for any backman, and as an added bonus he got on the park most weeks and was a pretty accurate shot for goal. These are big shoes to fill and while Koschitzke has started the year impressively, given his history of injuries and non-existent peripheral vision, it will be a big ask for him to play the whole year and sustain this form. Without a second big marking target in the goalsquare there is the risk that the midfielders will look for Riewoldt too often and make things too easily predictable for the defenders. That said, if Gardiner or King are able to push down often enough, that should at least create enough contests for the two bottom fishers in Milne and Schneider to pick up the scraps and manufacture some goals.
The other thing working in our favour this year is the draw. After Carlton's stumble tonight, we will head into round 4 on top of the ladder, chock full of confidence and facing a sick and sorry Dockers outfit at home. After another percentage-bloating affair we head back to Bogan Park in Adelaide to face bogey team Port. Even if we stumble at that hurdle, we have a run of 6 winnable matches in the Dogs, Pies, Bombers and Brisbane (all at Docklands) then Melbourne (Gold Coast) and North (Docklands). Given this draw we could find ourselves 10-1 or 9-2; much better than the 4-7 or 5-6 of recent years. It's hard to see even St Kilda mucking things up from there and a top 2 finish beckons.
I'm taking it one week at a time, and I don't want to get ahead of myself, but in a year when so many other things are turning to crap, the football gods look like smiling. Go the Saints !
